An article in the 6/1/11 edition of The New York Times opened with this lead: “No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.”

My first reaction was, “Wow!” My second reaction was “Wait…how many presidents since Roosevelt have lost re-election bids? (My third reaction: did we really need the “Delano?”)

It's a short list: Ford, Carter, and Bush 1. Was the unemployment rate the key to any of their defeats? I think it’s just as likely that other issues (e.g. pardoning Nixon, inflation, “read my lips”) left each of them vulnerable to defeat.

It’s a good reminder that just because a statement (or statistic) is true doesn’t mean it conveys the truth.

Think you can handle the truth? This Times article provides an analysis of the correlation between re-election and the unemployment rate.